Donald Trump will never close the border without hurting the heart of his base: mid-West farmers, the automotive industry, the technology industry, and the energy sector. These constituencies are all up in arms over the prospect of a border shutdown. Our NAFTA interdependence totals $612 billion worth of two-way trade including:
- $151 billion in electronics & technology
- $112 billion in machinery & agriculture
- $120 billion in automotive parts
For Texas it’s a real no-brainer, we do more trade with Mexico today that the entire U.S. did in 1993. That’s over $220 billion! While the border will suffer first, the entire state will feel severe impacts after one week. Just imagine no trucks on IH-35, empty railroad cars, and no freight for our seaports from Brownsville to Port Arthur. That’s a prescription for an economic downturn unlike we have seen since pre-NAFTA in 1993.
The ultimate irony here is shutting down the border will not affect the illegal(sic) immigration. Illegal crossings are not occurring at our ports of entry. The issue is the mothers and children coming to the U.S. are coming through our ports per our Asylum Laws which require asylum seekers to register at a port of entry to request asylum, be interviewed, and then their asylum request is accepted or rejected. The Honduran, Guatemalans, and Salvadorans are seeking lawful entry per our own Asylum Laws.
Our inability to plan for the increase of asylum seekers has made this situation worse. Hence, we have seen deportations and children separated from their parents and put in holding pens.
To make matters worse Trump has stopped the little federal aid we give to these three countries:
- $257 million to Guatemala
- $181 million to Honduras, and
- $118 million to El Salvador
This worsens already threadbare economies and only increases the number of asylum seekers.
As Trump tries to satisfy his base, many among that base will feel the pain of any protracted border shutdown.
Our statewide elected officials have all issued opposition to the proposed border shutdown.
The Texas Association of Business has very publicly stated their opposition because they better than most, know the devastating impact of shutting down the border.
I personally believe after the concerns raised by the stakeholders that are part of his base, Trump’s bravado about a border shutdown will result in so much “hot air.”
The interconnectedness of the Texas and Mexico economy will become too clear from Pampa to Pharr and from El Paso to Houston. My sincere hope is that Texas will never feel the pain of the shutdown of the $220 billion worth of annual trade.
Perhaps to save face Trump will find a small border crossing that he will “shut down,” and then as he is accustomed, will declare a total victory for his Border Shutdown Strategy. He is between a rock and a hard place, and there is no room for a border wide shutdown lest he punish a base that he needs for 2020.
(Jorge Haynes is a longtime advocate for ties with the NAFTA countries. He can be reached at jorge47@gmail.com)
